Sandbox Moats: Google’s Search Business

I’ve been thinking on my lack of a Google position lately. The more I look at it, YouTube is a monster with plenty of optionality and a dominant future. I tweeted about this recently and got some interesting replies.

The focus of my tweet was on Youtube, but the reaction focused on my comment on being slightly bearish on search. Many of the comments were focused on how you could possibly be bearish on search. If you ever question how someone could possibly be bearish on a topic, you aren’t thinking creatively enough.

Don’t get me wrong, search is an amazing business. Even saying search is awkward, I want to say Google. They’ve created a verb. Yet, I don’t see a real moat. I see an aging business that is increasingly monetizing. I see a worsening user experience. I see little competition in the short term and mounting competition in the long term. I’m looking for decades not days. Google will be in my life no doubt, but will it be based on search? I’m not sure time is on Google’s side.

Long story short, I hope Google spins off YouTube because I’ll be backing up the truck.