Bearly Thinking: On Lying Timeframes

I fall down bear holes like anyone else. Whether it be China / Taiwan relationships, historical valuation comparisons or anything else, it’s easy to over analyze or extrapolate something that doesn’t need to be.

The problem with bears is that on a long enough time horizon, everything goes to zero. The bears will always be right, but chances are they will be dead before they see that day. The unspoken secret of the bears is that while everything goes to zero, you’ll go to zero before then.

Just like bulls who only share their wins, bears are guilty of the same thing. Do you know any bears who publicly share their P&L? There is a lesson in there. I’m not saying bears are bad or anything like that, but if Tesla turns out to be a fraud in 2030, the bears from 2015 will be taking a victory lap (despite hemorrhaging money). Let the P&L tell the story and if you can’t see the P&L, probably don’t believe the story.