23 Predictions for 2023
Let’s make some reckless predictions. Not for any real reason, other than that they are fun. As you can see from last year, these bounce all over the place and some are terribly wrong.
- Spotify margins inflect in late CY23 as they start to show benefit from previous investment cycle. It becomes clear this isn’t a stock that should be trading at P to S of 1.
- AI is the next bubble, with OpenAI continuing to lead the hype
- Search goes from being an amazing business to being lumped with social media businesses as “terminal values”
- Apple has a 30% drawdown after app store antitrust and China worries all continue to mount
- Microsoft is the only mega cap not to have it’s moment of reckoning
- Tensions between China and Taiwan continue to rise, with several moments of panic, but ultimately no invasion.
- Bitcoin trades between $15k and $20k for all of 2023
- Roku is acquired
- Meta Quest 3 is launched to huge fan fare, leading to next metaverse hype cycle
- The fed will cut and gov’t will stimulate again, investors dive head first into market, only to get rekt
- Amazon has a huge year, finishing year +50% up
- Amazon sucks and Jeff Bezos comes back
- Elon Musk steps down as Tesla CEO
- SpaceX IPOs to sky-high valuations
- The War in Ukraine ends with Russia maintaining control of Crimea and ceding the rest of Ukraine
- CPI falls below 4%
- Peloton is acquired by a subscription company (Amazon, Apple, etc…)
- Snowflake finishes the year 50% down
- Neither Donald Trump, Ron Desantis or Mike Pence will be Republican presidential nominee (2024 but whatever)
- Joe Biden doesn’t run for reelection
- Semiconductors have a terrible year, finishing 30%+ down
- Twitter is constantly “on the brink of failure” but never actually fails
- The Bucks or Brewers win a championship
