Every now and then you read something that shakes your bullishness. Stratechery gave me that with an end of the “Post-Cold War”.
This is an amazing quote, because it’s toeing the line between making a terrible prediction and not actually saying much. I’m not sure if I agree we are in the end of the post-Cold War era, but it’s not an idea you should instantly dismiss. A new Cold War would be terrible for the stock market and the world. We’ve benefitted from globalization over the past 30+ years and while some unwinding might be a good thing, a rapid unwinding wouldn’t be. From inflation to political tension to military conflicts, even the mention of a new Cold War shook my bullishness for a bit. That being said, I can’t help myself, I’m still bullish.
A Healthy Reminder
This is a healthy reminder that we have no idea what the hell is going to come. If this scares you, buying into an all weather type fund might make sense. Whether it be Dalio’s All Weather Fund, the Swenson fund or the Dragon Portfolio. Finding a portfolio that can work in any market is a beautiful thing, especially in times like these.