Doge Pound: Drunken Group Economics

I’m down for lolz. I make several dumb tweets a day. I posted these tweets within hours of each other. Let’s embrace the stupidity and see what we can learn.

And boy is Dogecoin stupid. At $77B market cap, Dogecoin is worth more than Mercado Libre, Snowflake, Honda, Kraft, Dollar General, Spotify and Roku. I can’t help but laugh at a $77B joke. But for most, Dogecoin has evolved to be more than a joke. It is a joke that has become a get rich quick scheme. I’m a fan of jokes and getting rich, so let’s dive in to the details.

A Doge Story

Dogecoin was started in 2013 by Billy Markus and Jackson Palmer, initially planned as a fast, fun, bank free way to send/receive money. While Billy and Jackson created Dogecoin, the face of the operation was the Shiba Inu dog from the “Doge” meme. Crypto has always been a dramatic bunch and in many ways, Dogecoin was a commentary on that. A feel good coin embarked on a quick rise, highlighted by a crowdfunded sponsorship with Nascar.

The history of Dogecoin brings out some lolz and a good story. Could this be a crowdfunded currency of the future? Is the internet coming together to support a movement? A quick review of the data shows that Dogecoin’s wild ride isn’t driven by the average person. Here are some revealing stats:

1. The largest wallet owns 28% of all supply ($21B)*
2. Top 100 wallets own ~50% of supply ($50B)
3. Top 1% of wallets own 95% of coins
4. 129,371,024,700 Dogecoins currently exist
5. The supply of Dogecoins is infinite
6. The current market cap of Dogecoin is $77B

^{*Rumors are this wallet belongs to Robinhood}

The distribution of coins terrifies me, even if exchanges are included. If 1% of wallets own 95% of coins, how is this a group movement? 1% control $73B of the $77B market cap. Like most financials, Dogecoin comes down to the 1% driving a market. The narrative tells a story of group economics and the internet driving change. The data shows a few wallets getting massively rich, while also having the ability to tank the market. Maybe those wallets are exchanges, but the on-chain analytics versus Bitcoin are startling. Large holders (between 0.1% and 1%) represent only 12% of the supply of Bitcoin, but 65% for Dogecoin. If exchanges are the high concentration for Dogecoin, why isn’t Bitcoin so high?

Anything is Paw-Sible

But if you ignore all the data, what is the end game? Who is left holding the bag of doge shit? GameStop was a secretly genius maneuver as it transferred wealth from Wall Street to the people. Without short/gamma squeezes, what is the end game? To transfer wealth to those who got in/out early? I worry the joke became hope which will lead to ruin. That is my only worry. If you know and accept the risk, I’m about it. Logic isn’t absolute. If the world is crazy enough for Dogecoin to have a $77B market cap, why can’t it go to $1T? Anything is paw-sible.

If you are trading Dogecoin, be safe and enjoy the lolz.