Silly Season is Here: Here’s How to Profit

The market is starting to act funny again. Bitcoin is ripping. Memecoins are back. Board members are tweeting about tendies. Shit’s getting weird. Here’s how I plan to attack this market.

How to Profit from Silly Season

• Be sensitive to valuation – if anything trades over 10x sales, it better have significant growth both historically and a route in the future.
• If something indiscriminately doubles or more in price… sell some! Cover your cost basis, then you diamonds hands.
• Sell once, then hold. Bubbles don’t pop quickly, bubbles last for years. You can try to ride the wave up, but they are impossible to time.
• Many stocks will be unreasonably valued. Right now, examples include Palantir right now. If you hold these kinds of stocks and have strong convictions, I’d still follow the above advice. But if you are skeptical, one fun way to play these is to wait until bad news starts coming, then attack with puts. You need to wait for the catalyst though and timing these are tough. An example is Peloton. The stock went on a massive run, then had a series of red flags pop up. Then the stock fell from a $50b market cap to $1b. You can be late with puts and still get a massive win.

How Not to Get Rekt

Below are some rules I use to avoid getting rekt:

• Selling some during silly season probably isn’t a bad thing, but selling everything probably is a bad idea
• Deploy your cash slowly
• If you have a chance to make life-changing money, take some of it.

Above all else, chase upside, but manage risk.

Or you can just buy quality, hold and slowly add. It’s far easier and way less risky. It’s less fun though, but for most people, this is probably the play.