Crazy Predictions for 2024
I usually miss quite a bit on these, but that is the point of crazy! Here we go.
- The Spotify inflection point continues. The year of efficiency becomes the decades of profits as the stock hits an all time high.
- Block stock comes back into vogue, with all the different business units hitting their stride at the time. Then Jack makes a questionable capital allocation decision and it all comes crashing down.
- Bitcoin hits $100k. If you say it enough, it has to come true, right?
- NFTs go wild again. The bubble of the past comes back
- Apple gets into legal trouble and the multiple cuts in half.
- Google’s terminal value becomes the main topic of conversation around the stock. Sundar Pichai is fired.
- Amazon’s supply chain flexes it’s power. After ridiculous levels of investments, the value of those investments start to show as Amazon turns those investments into another major source of revenue.
- The investment thesis for Netflix becomes: driver of the cultural zeitgeist.
- AI bubble continues to inflate, but open source starts to bypass OpenAI. The market is confused and just prices up all AI to ridiculous levels.
- Biden wins, steps down for health reasons and Kamala is somehow president despite being widely despised. Just like it was always planned.
- China re-emerges as an emerging market and the market falls back in love. I really don’t know anything on China, but when I see a universal negative sentiment on investing in China… it makes me kind of bullish. This is nothing more than me just blindly fading sentiment.
- The streaming bundle leader emerges and it isn’t led by cable. Streaming is a fragmented industry that is struggling for everyone who isn’t Netflix. Something is waiting to tie all of these loose parts together… and Disney emerges as that something, covering their house of brands, sports and much more.
