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# Fat Baby Funds

Seems Like a Bad Idea

## Sitemaps

- [XML Sitemap](https://fatbabyfunds.com/sitemap.xml): Contains all public & indexable URLs for this website.

## Posts

- [The Spotify Machine](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2026/06/the-spotify-machine/) - Spotify recently held their 3rd ever investor day. Before we dive into what Spotify covered at their investor day, it's worth covering why we should care. Investor days are meant to share the long term vision of the company. Having a vision is one thing, but executing on it is another. You need to have
- [Spotify: A Time to Transition](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2026/02/spotify-a-time-to-transition/) - Spotify has been trading wildly with the whims of the market, but behind the price, a positive story keeps building. Let's check back in on Spotify. The Long Term Vision The ultimate vision for Spotify is simple. One billion users. Expanding markets (music => podcasts => audiobooks => video). Decent unit economics. Strong personalization. And
- [Tanking Theory](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2026/02/tanking-theory/) - The talk of the town in the NBA right now is tanking. Some of the most logical NBA analysts argue the importance of tanking, but I think they might be missing the forests for the trees via first order thinking that misses second order effects.. The Path of Champions Let's walk through a quick review
- [Predicting Predictions](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2026/02/predicting-predictions/) - I've been gambling. It's not a new thing, I've been a gambler my whole life. I chase edges. Right now, the new big thing is prediction markets. The big question is what prediction markets will impact. It's clear that prediction markets will take significant volume if they continue to receive regulatory clearance. So the questions
- [Duolingo and the Attention Economy](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2025/12/duolingo-and-the-attention-economy/) - People fundamentally misunderstand Duolingo. They assume it's a learning app. It's not. The reality is that Duolingo is a member of the attention economy. This fundamentally changes the way you need to analyze Duolingo. Let's dive in. The (Potentially Problematic) Unit Economics of Duolingo The freemium model is an amazing business model. It allows for
- [Momentum or Value? Why Not Both](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2025/11/momentum-or-value-why-not-both/) - I’ve noticed investors tend to split into two tribes: value people and momentum people. I’ve never fit cleanly into either, but both camps have ideas worth stealing. You can learn from both. The problem for most investors is that they become momentum investors at the top (i.e they buy the top), then become value investors
- [Zero Effect: Looking for Nothing](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2025/11/zero-effect-looking-for-nothing/) - I love ideas. I stumbled on a movie recommendation that led to an interesting idea: “When you look for something, you find nothing. But when you look for nothing, you find something.” The idea is psychological. We have so many things that are left hiding in plain sight. When looking for stocks, the key is
- [Changes and Netflix Parallels: Spotify in Motion](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2025/10/changes-and-netflix-parallels-spotify-in-motion/) - Things have been changing rapidly for Spotify. This isn't anything new, Spotify is an ever evolving company, but now is a good time to regroup and check back on the thesis. Changes At the Top Spotify CEO Daniel Ek announced he is moving from CEO into an "European Chairman" role. In his place, Spotify will
- [Past isn't the Present](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2025/09/past-isnt-the-present/) - One of the most common mistakes I see in evaluating stocks is overly relying on the history of stock price. The market is a fickle bitch. It takes a decade for it to become a weighing machine instead of a voting machine. Even the greatest stocks struggle to outgrow insane expectations. When looking at a
- [Opendoor: Falling Upwards](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2025/07/opendoor-falling-upwards/) - Opendoor is the latest beneficiary of Wall Street Bets massively follow trading each other. I've been intrigued by iBuying and Opendoor for a long time. The unit economics are absolutely terrible and no company can survive on it as a business. Yet, the value to the customer is very real. Could iBuying be the foundation
- [5 Trades](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2025/02/5-trades/) - I've been a little slow posting, but let's get after it with a few trades to get back into the swing of things. Long Airbnb - I'm worried about the short-term results here, but this is a beautiful business model at a reasonable cost. I'll be dollar cost averaging into this. Short something expensive whenever
- [On Bubbles, Time and the Ultimate Truth](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/12/on-bubbles-time-and-the-ultimate-truth/) - I've always had a keen interest in bubbles. Something about making crazy money and then losing it all (and more) just fascinates me. Further, investors love to misunderstand bubbles. To help make sure I fully understood the history of financial bubbles, I read Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles. This book takes
- [Silly Season is Here: Here's How to Profit](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/11/silly-season-is-here-heres-how-to-profit/) - The market is starting to act funny again. Bitcoin is ripping. Memecoins are back. Board members are tweeting about tendies. Shit's getting weird. Here's how I plan to attack this market. How to Profit from Silly Season Be sensitive to valuation - if anything trades over 10x sales, it better have significant growth both historically
- [Bear Market Regrets and Reminders](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/10/bear-market-regrets-and-reminders/) - Part of my job is to be perpetually negative. Sure, your financials are amazing... but your pipeline is empty. My job bleeds into my view of the market. Overall, we are in a bullish market. My portfolio is at an all-time high. Yet, I can't help but think about the negative. I think that is
- [Investing on the Scarcest Resource: People's Time](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/09/investing-on-the-scarcest-resource-peoples-time/) - Time is a funny thing. You don't realize how valuable it is until you've run out of it. A powerful king, known for his wealth and influence, sought counsel from a wise old man in his kingdom. One day, the king asked, "What is the most valuable treasure one can possess?"The wise man responded, "Your
- [Cash in Chaos: Deploying Funds in Uncertainty](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/08/cash-in-chaos-deploying-funds-in-uncertainty/) - I have about 20% of my net worth in cash accounts earning 5%. I've been working through an investing idea rut, hoping to find something worth investing in. I'd dive into a stock, but ultimately end up not loving it (I'm looking at you Lululemon). What I'm Gonna Do I'm going to deploy cash into
- [An Investing Idea Rut](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/07/an-investing-idea-rut/) - I've hit a bit of an investing rut. Despite my portfolio performing well and my continued, steady investments, I'm sitting on too much cash. While part of this is intentional—taking advantage of a 5% risk-free return—I'm in my early 30s and won't need to access this money for decades. The idea of having significant capital
- [What's the Catalyst? Hope.](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/06/whats-the-catalyst-hope/) - It's amazing how many investment thesis fall apart with a simple question. What's the catalyst? Why now? When you pull the answer back, it often comes back to hope. They hope the valuation will rise. They hope the valuation will come down. Here are some examples I commonly see: Situation: SoFi is trading at a
- [6 Quick Thoughts on the Market](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/06/6-quick-thoughts-on-the-market/) - Software isn't dying, but the sentiment driving is fundamentally interesting. When you see cost structures changing, it should raise all kinds of red flags. If developers are the main cost of software, then it is worth thinking though further. I think the "software is dying" arguments start to fall apart when you start to break
- [Do What I Say, Not What I Do: Levels of Diversification](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/05/do-what-i-say-not-what-i-do-levels-of-diversification/) - People are funny. If you tell them that you buy and hold a basket of stocks that isn't the S&P 500, they look at you like you are crazy. Yet, someone who adds gold to their portfolio looks down on just owning S&P 500. It's all about the levels of diversification. Below is the rough
- [Stock Thoughts - Big Moats Edition](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/05/stock-thoughts-big-moats-edition/) - Quick thoughts on 4 stocks I've got stuck in my head. Match Group - Losing users (paid and not paid) isn't great, but this seems like a profitable business with a great moat trading at 8x FCF and 12x Forward PE. Does it need to be more complicated than this? Starbucks - Earnings were a
- [Netflix: The New Cultural Zeitgeist](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/02/netflix-the-new-cultural-zeitgeist/) - My views with Netflix have been evolving with the company. I never loved the stock in the past, it always felt like they wanted to be a content company and they were terrible at it. However, the introduction of their advertising tier marked a turning point in my view of the company. Delving deeper into
- [Celsius: Too Hot to Handle](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/01/celsius-too-hot-to-handle/) - I'm a bull, but sometimes you see things so silly that you can't ignore them. For me, that is Celsius stock right now. Growth investors are going crazy and Celsius has been on a monster run... but are they buying the top of a shitco bull run? Let's dive in! A Series of Red Flags
- [Six Things: Learning, Peacock, Audiobooks, Expectations, Fixing the Packers and Why You Were Wrong on the Clippers](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/01/six-things-learning-peacock-audiobooks-expectations-fixing-the-packers-and-why-you-were-wrong-on-the-clippers/) - I've got to get back to posting more, but for now I wanted to do some quick hits. Learn by doing - I'm sort of cheap. In some ways that can be a good thing, in a lot of ways that is a bad thing. One idea I've always liked was learning by doing, so
- [Crazy Predictions for 2024](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2024/01/crazy-predictions-for-2024/) - I usually miss quite a bit on these, but that is the point of crazy! Here we go. The Spotify inflection point continues. The year of efficiency becomes the decades of profits as the stock hits an all time high. Block stock comes back into vogue, with all the different business units hitting their stride
- [What I Learned Last Bear Market](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/12/what-i-learned-last-bear-market/) - The market is heading back to stupid levels, with stocks going on crazy runs. I've seen a lot of people say everyone is making the same mistakes as the last bull run, so as an investor who made a ton of mistakes during that bull run, I thought I'd share what I've learned. My mistakes
- [Elon the Bullshitter, Maniac and Iterator](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/12/elon-the-bullshitter-maniac-and-iterator/) - I've always had a different view of Elon than most people. You either love him or hate him. I'm sort of in the middle. My take has generally been: Elon's a bullshitter who delivers. Given everything that is going on in the Elonverse, I thought it might be an interesting time to zero in a
- [Bitcoin's Back, Time to Sell?](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/12/bitcoins-back-time-to-sell/) - Each gift has its burden. I've proven that I can hold assets through financial turmoil... which is a gift! Yet, it simultaneously is a burden. Knowing how to hold is a gift, knowing when to sell is an art. "Shadow and light are two sides of the same coin… one cannot exist without the other."
- [Once in a...](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/11/once-in-a/) - I consider myself a lucky person. I’ve had multiple once in a lifetime opportunities in a short lifetime. People misunderstand how often opportunities come by them. When they see once in a decade opportunities pass them by, they ignore it, believing they happen less often than they truly do. Once in a life means once
- [Disney: A Brand Trap](http://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/09/disney-a-brand-trap/) - I initially set out to do a deep dive on Disney, but didn't quite realize what that meant. Disney is a monster, with an insane amount of complexity. So, I took the easy way out and decided to lay out the evolution of my thought process on this company. The Positives: Strong Brand: Disney has
- [Investment Idea: Lebron James NFTs](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/08/investment-idea-lebron-james-nfts/) - I've always had a soft spot for Wendy's. When Kobe was retiring, any road games he was playing was a circus. Yet, someone in the Bucks marketing department thought it was a good idea to have a buy one get one ticket sale for that game if you bought a soda from Wendy's. Well, 22
- [A Sirius Squeeze](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/08/a-sirius-squeeze/) - I love weird things. Whether it be food or stocks, they just catch my attention. One of the weird stocks I've been watching is $SIRI. As you can see, the price action here has been wild. The story behind the price action is interesting. The idea many traders were going after was an arbitrage trade.
- [Five Ideas Stuck in My Head](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/07/five-ideas-stuck-in-my-head/) - Sometimes an idea gets stuck in your head. Not necessarily a good idea, but an idea nonetheless. The thing I love about ideas is that they don't have to be good, they just have to be different. Then you keep iterating and experimenting until the bad becomes okay becomes good becomes great. And repeat. Investing
- [Bearly Thinking: On Lying Timeframes](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/07/bearly-thinking-on-lying-timeframes/) - I fall down bear holes like anyone else. Whether it be China / Taiwan relationships, historical valuation comparisons or anything else, it's easy to over analyze or extrapolate something that doesn't need to be. The problem with bears is that on a long enough time horizon, everything goes to zero. The bears will always be
- [Spotify and the Audiobook Dilemma](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/07/spotify-and-the-audiobook-dilemma/) - I love audiobooks, but Audible is sort of a pain. A subscription for credits just doesn't make that much sense. I'm a big fan of Libby, but it's not necessarily simple and has a limited selection. Spotify rolled out their initial audiobook product, but it leaves a ton to desire. If they want to disrupt
- [Lessons Learned from Stitchfix](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/06/lessons-learned-from-stitchfix/) - Learning from your past mistakes is the best way to learn. The beauty of having a blog is that you can revisit your thoughts at the time. Let's revisit one of my main mistakes. The Thought Process I thought Stitchfix was a low risk, high reward trade. The reality is that any company that is
- [The Problem With Complexity](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/06/the-problem-with-complexity/) - Complexity can be alluring. It can seem that complexity brings potential of higher returns, tax savings, increased flexibility or even reduced risk. Unfortunately, complexity begets itself. Complexity Breeds Complexity The problem with complexity is that it breeds complexity. As you bring additional considerations into your investments, those can bring additional problems. For example, let’s say
- [Bad Ideas: Roku Enters Gaming](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/06/bad-ideas-roku-enters-gaming/) - I think Roku should enter the gaming market. Let's dive into the pros/cons of what this would mean. Why Gaming? If Roku can prove out their business model (hard ware at or below cost, then leveraging user base into a number of different areas of monetization), then competition will increase significantly as that happens. Amazon
- [Roku: The Streaming Industry's Aggregator?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/06/roku-the-streaming-industrys-aggregator/) - I've been a big fan of Stratechery/Sharp Tech. One of their recent podcasts talked about how Youtube TV could be the big winner from the death of cable. The question I had when thinking this through is why not Roku? The Problem with Streaming I recently wrote about Peacock's crazy streaming efforts. What's apparent in
- [The Mental Model You Need: Bayesian Thinking](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/05/the-mental-model-you-need-bayesian-thinking/) - I've been increasingly seeing people being prisoners of the moment. Whatever is happening now is the truth. A great example of this is the NBA playoffs right now. After 3 games of the Eastern Conference files, people were ready to crown Jimmy Butler as one of the best 5 players in the league. Now through
- [Peacock's Quest to Burn Cash](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/05/peacocks-quest-to-burn-cash/) - I'm a huge fan of investing in yourself. Whether it be personal or a company, the benefits of compounding can lead to huge returns. However, every now and then some companies in a sign of desperation take it too far. I recently stumbled upon Peacock's financials and was surprised at quite how ugly they were.
- [The AI Hype Cycle: Are We Putting the Cart Before the Horse?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/05/the-ai-hype-cycle-are-we-putting-the-cart-before-the-horse/) - I'm getting old. Most people hate getting old, I sort of love it. Yeah, I can't drink like a horse any more, but I have so much more history and understanding of the world. Part of the understanding is finding the hype cycle. Roughly put, the hype cycle has 5 stages: Innovation Trigger, Peak of
- [The Opportunity Cost of Thoughts](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/05/the-opportunity-cost-of-thoughts/) - I saw a new idea on Twitter the other day. Thinking cost is the idea that you can only think about one idea at a time, which creates a high opportunity cost. You have limited thought "time", you should be careful how you use it. I love ideas like this, but lately the main idea
- [The Milwaukee Bucks: Ergo(dicity) Fire Bud](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/05/the-milwaukee-bucks-ergodicity-fire-bud/) - Mike Budenholzer runs a beautiful motion offense. The ball moves. The math makes sense. It maximizes the numbers of points you score vs. what you give up. It all seems so logical and the regular season results are stunning. The problem comes in that the point is to win a championship which means above all
- [Investment Idea - Liberty SiriusXM Group](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/04/investment-idea-liberty-siriusxm-group/) - Liberty SiriusXM Group is a holding company that holds primarily SiriusXM (Sirius, Pandora, Stitcher, etc...) and some LiveNation (concerts, Ticketmaster, etc...). I heard this as a bull case on the Meb Faber podcast and thought it might be worth diving into. The Elevator Bull Case The short/sweet bull case: Sirius XM isn't a terrible business
- [Breaking the Banks: Is Danger Ahead?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/03/breaking-the-banks-is-danger-ahead/) - It's hard to tell when a scary event happens whether it is the start or the end. Are the bank runs we saw on Silicon Valley Bank and a few others the start or the end of the panic? A Bad Bet A $1M Twitter bet caught my attention. The bet is from Balaji Srinivasan, Coinbase's
- [Spotify: From Netflix to Youtube](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/03/spotify-from-netflix-to-youtube/) - Spotify just had their Stream On event, which gave more insight into Spotify's vision of the future. In short, that vision is to be less like the audio version of Netflix and instead be Youtube. I'll lay out the vision that Spotify spent 90 minutes laying out in Stream On. Video Ad Network Discovery This
- [The Podcastrophe: How Big is the Podcast Problem?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/02/the-podcastrophe-how-big-is-the-podcast-problem/) - One of the major takeaways from Spotify's investor day was that the music business in a better spot financially than most people thought. The problem is that means that podcasts were in a worse spot... Let's dive into the problem. Simply put, Spotify went from not being in podcasts to being the dominant leader in
- [Is Sydney a Bigger Problem for Meta than Microsoft?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/02/is-sydney-a-bigger-problem-for-meta-than-microsoft/) - Zuck's metaverse bet is built on the premise that the metaverse will take presence to the next level. "We basically believe that the metaverse is going to be the successor of themobile Internet, that it's going to enable social experiences that are the ultimateexpression of what we try to build, which is allowing people to
- [What Makes Up an All Weather Fund?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/02/what-makes-up-an-all-weather-fund/) - All-weather funds typically invest in a diversified portfolio of assets and aim to provide consistent returns regardless of market conditions. The main components of an all-weather fund include: Stocks - Equity investments in publicly traded companies. Bonds - Debt investments in government or corporate issuers. Alternative investments - Investments in assets such as commodities, real
- [Peloton: Not Dead Yet](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/02/peloton-not-dead-yet/) - It's been quite the ride for Peloton. From a high flying COVID stock to a bankruptcy risk. In the shareholder letter, Barry laid out some of the dramatic changes that he's led so far and the vision for the next year. But are these changes enough to save Peloton? Let's dive in. Year One rebuilt
- [Why All Weather?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/01/why-all-weather/) - We live in a time of great unknown. After decades of declining interest rates, we've seen interest rates hiking faster than ever before bringing chaos to the markets. This has brought huge levels of unknown into the market, bringing into doubt whether stocks and bonds will bring the same kinds of historical returns. To help
- [Investing is Funny](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/01/investing-is-funny/) - Financial Twitter feels like Fed Twitter these days. Everyone is blaming interest rates for the market's swings right now. I don't think they are necessarily wrong, but it is a gross oversimplification. Everyone is putting their hopes in to the Fed, but I think that's missing the point. Stocks are down because interest rates are
- [Jack is Whack(y): On Investing in Block](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/01/jack-is-whacky-on-investing-in-square/) - Block is a great company. Multiple great businesses all tied together with plenty of future growth possibilities. Jack is tough to discuss. People see whatever they want to. Bears see a crazy CEO who doesn't care about maximizing shareholder value. Bulls see an eccentric CEO whose founded multiple billion dollar companies. What's the truth? As
- [23 Predictions for 2023](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/01/23-predictions-for-2023/) - Let's make some reckless predictions. Not for any real reason, other than that they are fun. As you can see from last year, these bounce all over the place and some are terribly wrong. Spotify margins inflect in late CY23 as they start to show benefit from previous investment cycle. It becomes clear this isn't
- [2023 - New Year, Same (Hopefully Slightly Smarter) Me](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2023/01/2023-new-year-same-hopefully-slightly-smarter-me/) - I didn't have a great investing year, I made a ton of dumb mistakes and lost a lot of money. Yet I stayed true to my strategy and didn't panic trade in and out of stocks. I'll take that as a minor win! I always try to learn, just in a slow way. Learning is
- [Bearish Nightmares: The Second Cold War](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/12/bearish-nightmares-the-second-cold-war/) - Every now and then you read something that shakes your bullishness. Stratechery gave me that with an end of the "Post-Cold War". This is an amazing quote, because it's toeing the line between making a terrible prediction and not actually saying much. I'm not sure if I agree we are in the end of the
- [I Stopped Googling: Here's What Happened](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/12/i-stopped-googling-heres-what-happened/) - I've always been a bit of a Google bear. Search is clearly an amazing business and I see plenty of short term moats. The business is generally great when it turns into a verb and at this point google is a verb. So when I say I stopped googling, I mean I stopped using Google,
- [The Problem with AI](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/12/the-problem-with-ai/) - Artificial intelligence (AI) has been all the rage lately, with advancements in machine learning and natural language processing allowing AI systems to do all sorts of impressive things. But let's be real here: AI is never going to be all that it's cracked up to be. And here's why. For starters, AI is just too
- [Right Time, Right (Market) Place?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/11/right-time-right-market-place/) - I've been fascinated by Opendoor and iBuying for awhile now. Traditional real estate needed to be disrupted in favor of something more user friendly. iBuying provided an interesting opportunity. The problem with iBuying is the economics never made sense, but yet something about it was always interesting about it. It was so different. If pricing
- [Elon the Bullshitter: Explaining the Unexplainable](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/11/elon-the-bullshitter-explaining-the-unexplainable/) - Elon Musk is a bit of an enigma. He's built an empire while proving haters wrong at every corner, but also clearly is sort of an idiot. How can we explain this apparent contradiction? The Empire Tesla is a monster. They've brought electric cars further than anyone could expect. They continue to push the boundaries
- [The Problem with Netflix](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/11/the-problem-with-netflix/) - Netflix had been consistently out performing for 10 years.. then fell off a cliff. Is this a buying opportunity? Let's dive in. Netflix had been on a tear. They created their own category, then continued to dominate it for a decade while competition dragged their feet. They massively grew users, raised some prices and significantly
- [The State of Crypto](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/11/the-state-of-crypto/) - Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall bankrupt everyone SBF (probably) Crypto is unravelling... fast. If you've been living under a crypto rock, FTX went bankrupt. Led by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), FTX was one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world. From Sequoia Capital
- [The Bull Case for Meta?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/11/the-bull-case-for-meta/) - "Changing my name was meant to inspire and bring youth together all around the world." Metta World Peace or Meta the company, I'm not really sure at this point Meta has so much that you'd want in a company, strong operating history, young founder, clean balance sheet and huge moats. And for all of this,
- [Swimming in a Sea of Numbers](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/10/swimming-in-a-sea-of-numbers-on-thinking-less-direct/) - I just spent the past few weeks visiting all of our locations for my 9 to 5. We stopped at 25+ locations across 4 states. When I got back, a member of our corporate finance team asked if all this travel was really justified. I traveled with my boss and one coworker, so the cost
- [Play Dead: Lessons We Can Learn From the Dead](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/10/play-dead-lessons-we-can-learn-from-the-dead/) - It's not every day I want to be dead. Well not really dead, but invest like I'm dead because... A study by Fidelity showed that the best performing investors happened to be dead... It's a wild idea that someone who can't do anything is literally doing better than you.but... I can't find that study anywhere
- [I Can't Hear You: Spotify and Audiobooks](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/10/i-cant-hear-you-spotify-and-audiobooks/) - Spotify recently rolled out audiobooks. The initial rollout was quiet and underwhelming. Let's dive into where audiobooks go from here. The Problem The problem is that Spotify has excelled as a company because they made things easier. Streaming was easier than buying music, so it won. Spotify is a streaming audio company. The first iteration
- [Open and Shut: Why I'm Not Closing the Door on Opendoor](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/09/open-and-shut-why-im-not-closing-the-door-on-opendoor/) - I've got a problem. I keep falling in love with low margin businesses. I'm not quite in love with Opendoor, but I am curious about it. Let's talk it through. What's an Opendoor? Opendoor is a company that buys and sells home in an extremely consumer friendly way. Selling your home is an extremely painful
- [Bitcoin: Religious Zealots Make For Easy Trades](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/09/bitcoin-religious-zealots-make-for-easy-trades/) - Bitcoin is a different form of money. Instead of being controlled by the government, it is controlled by a combination of the internet, networks and math. Normally the government can print as much money as they please, and they have historically abused this privilege. Bitcoin is decentralized, so it’s not controlled by any authority. All
- [The Parable of Growth](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/09/the-parable-of-growth/) - Growth is the holy grail for businesses. In the moment, every business chases potential for growth. Not being ready to accommodate the growth is never acceptable. However, chasing growth too far can put you into a world of hurt. Businesses need to balance chasing growth with not getting over extended. Here are a few businesses
- [Mortgaging the Moat](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/09/mortgaging-the-moat/) - Every now and then you hear a phrase that succinctly explains an idea that had been floating around in your head. One of my favorite examples is just keep buying, but a more recent one I stumbled upon was mortgaging the moat. The idea behind mortgaging a moat is essentially that a company is eroding
- [Balancing Bull vs Bear](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/08/balancing-bull-vs-bear/) - Sometimes I think too much. I drive my wife crazy by constantly changing my mind from day to day, but I can't help it. I've got the same thoughts on the market, but rarely act on them. Here are some of the thoughts running through my mind right now. Why You Should Sell Everything I'll
- [Serendipity: A Life Worth Living](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/08/serendipity-a-life-worth-living/) - Some words linger in your brain. For me, it's serendipity. I don't know why it does, but it lingers on the periphery of my mind. Serendipity Serendipity is making fortunate discoveries by accident. Serendipity is having fun with optionality. I googled serendipity, just looking for examples of serendipity from the business world (there are plenty).
- [Great to Good: Why Good Companies Can Be Bad Investments](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/08/great-to-good-why-good-companies-can-be-bad-investments/) - Buy quality and hold. It sounds so simple and true. Unfortunately, buying good companies at the wrong price can be a terribly painful way to invest. Worse yet, great companies can deteriorate into good companies. Let's dive into some examples. Microsoft Nowadays everyone thinks of Microsoft as a prototypical great company, but from 2000 to
- [Volatility: A True Investor's Dream](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/08/volatility-a-true-investors-dream/) - The true investor welcomes volatility ... a wildly fluctuating market means that irrationally low prices will periodically be attached to solid businesses.Warren Buffett It's easy to think of volatility as a bad thing. The first rule of investing is don't lose money and often times volatility means losing money. Why You Should Love Volatility Volatility
- [A Risky Reminder to Myself](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/07/a-risky-reminder-to-myself/) - We are all tempted. Get rich quick sounds so nice. From 20% interest rates to shitty jpegs, get rich quick is everywhere. Getting rich sounds so nice. Losing all your money is way worse. Never lose track of risk. Obvious Ways to Identify Risk Identifying risk doesn't need to be complicated. Here are a few
- [Why I'm Still Buying](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/07/why-im-still-buying/) - The market has been imploding, yet I'm still buying. I've been buying. I'll keep buying. Why? I believe timing the market is one of the hardest things to do in investing. Time causes chaos. Out of nowhere, you don't know what crazy event will happen (COVID, Russia invading Ukraine, etc..). Yet, that doesn't even begin
- [Optionality in Bear Markets](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/07/optionality-in-bear-markets/) - A lot of investors talk about optionality in bull markets. Cash is abundant and optionality is an easy crutch for justifying high valuations. When bear markets come, the talk of optionality ends. Why This Makes Sense? The number one priority is always stay alive. When shit hits the fan, you need to above all else
- [10 Degenerate Bets](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/06/10-degenerate-bets/) - I invest 98% of my money. Buy and hold. The kind of investing that puts people to sleep. Every now and then, I let the degenerate in me out. Plus, we are in a bear market, so we really need to have some fun. Here are my latest degenerate trade ideas: Long $HOOD - This
- [Spot On: Balancing Forecasts and Reality](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/06/spot-on-balancing-forecasts-and-reality/) - I expected Spotify to lay out a clear path to profitability at their recent investor's day. Wall Street has been anxious and in many ways I understand why. We are 10+ years in and Spotify still hasn't consistently turned operating profits. While I expected Spotify to lay out a path to profitability, I didn't expect
- [A Big Bite: Why Apple is Risky](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/06/a-big-bite-why-apple-is-risky/) - A decade plus of domination has made many Apple bulls believe they are immune to risk. The below commentary on iPhone led me to this line of thought, which got pushback from a lot of Apple bulls along the way. The problem with the iPhone is you're now in mature business. Pretty much everybody has
- [The Rise of the Dragon: A 100 Year Portfolio](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/05/the-rise-of-the-dragon-a-100-year-portfolio/) - I don't know about you, but I have no clue what is going to happen next year, not to mention tomorrow. If you asked me a year ago whether Russia would invade Ukraine or inflation would exceed 8%, I would have bet strongly against that. Yet, here we are. I'm an optimist, but sometimes shit
- [Elon & Twitter: A Match Made in Elon's Version of Heaven](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/05/elon-twitter-a-match-made-in-elons-version-of-heaven/) - Does it make sense to buy a company for $44B that has lost $2.6B in its lifetime? On the surface, hell no. Yet I think Elon buying Twitter makes all kinds of sense for Elon. I won't look at this from the consumer angle (this hurts my head), but instead why this makes perfect sense
- [Why I'm Buying](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/04/why-im-buying/) - Times like these, everything looks (and smells) like a shit company. It makes you want to sell. Run for the hills. Bear arguments are everywhere and probably right. From supply chain woes, to World War III, humanity is a tire fire. Yet, that's always the case. Why is this time different? I don't think it
- [It's Raining Knives, Should We Catch Some?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/04/its-raining-knives-should-we-catch-some/) - Often your instincts fail you. As great stocks are falling like crazy, my instincts tell me to try and buy the dip. No way these great companies trade at these low valuations forever! I need to buy NOW. I need to catch some of these falling knives NO! Buying the dip is good, trying to
- [The Optionality of Ethereum](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/03/the-optionality-of-ethereum/) - I'm all kinds of torn on Ethereum. When you use it, it's just silly. Paying $150 just to make a transaction is silly and sort of against the whole point of web3. Despite the extreme fees, Ethereum has been chugging along. The best projects are all on Ethereum despite Solana being significantly cheaper. The potential
- [On Buffett and Happiness](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/03/on-buffett-and-happiness/) - Money doesn't make you happy, well at least for most people. I recently listened to The Snowball on the life of Warren Buffett. It wasn't fully what I expected. I always just assumed Warren had his shit together. He was rich and from Omaha. Not sure why, but something about that combination just made me
- [Buy and HODL](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/03/buy-and-hodl/) - Seeing your portfolio cut in half makes you question some of your decisions. What if I hedged? What if I trimmed? What if I tried to sell the top? All of those questions would've made me more money if I timed right, but that is a big if. Being a stock picker is hard enough,
- [What Goes Up, Must Come Down: On Multiple Expansion](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/03/what-goes-up-must-come-down-on-multiple-expansion/) - "This time is different". Famous last words. We all want this time to be different. Yet, maybe this time is different! Just not in the way we want. So many great companies are trading near all time lows. Valuations should come down over time. As companies mature, revenue growth will inevitably slow. If growth days
- [Ignorance is Bliss](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/03/ignorance-is-bliss/) - I stopped looking at my portfolio for a month. It was a form of tinkering. I set up DCAs, then just stepped back. I probably chose the right month to do this with WW3 fears exploding. We all get lost in the minutiae of our lives, losing track of what truly is important. We need
- [A Message From the Past](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/03/a-message-from-the-past/) - Everything is wild. Stocks are going from extremely high valuations to all time low valuations. How can one make sense of this? One of my favorite ways to find the signal in the noisiest of times is to step back and truly look at the business. Look at what the business was 3 to 5
- [Time to Tinker](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/02/time-to-tinker/) - The term convexity can be confusing. Convexity is based in mathematics and the technical definition will make your head spin. However, once you simplify it down to layman terms, it makes a lot more sense. Simply put, convexity is where a marginal increase causes more benefit than harm. It is a form of asymmetry. Tinkering
- [Sandbox Moats: Google's Search Business](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/02/sandbox-moats-googles-search-business/) - I've been thinking on my lack of a Google position lately. The more I look at it, YouTube is a monster with plenty of optionality and a dominant future. I tweeted about this recently and got some interesting replies. The focus of my tweet was on Youtube, but the reaction focused on my comment on
- [Fear: What is it Good For?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/02/fear-what-is-it-good-for/) - World War 3 is here. Inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years. Interest rate hikes are coming. And on top of this, the market is still following memes and bumping shitcoins. Layer in a completely inefficient bureaucratic government and we should be shitting bricks. But I'm not. Why We Shouldn't Be Scared
- [Netflix: What Comes Next?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/02/netflix-what-comes-next/) - You can only have so much user growth for so long. At a certain point, growth will naturally slow. It seems like Netflix is hitting that point after weak guidance. What does that mean for Netflix? Beyond Users When you stop growing users, you need to make more money in other ways. You either keep
- [Too Hard Pile](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/01/too-hard-pile/) - My too hard to understand pile is pretty big, but I don't throw enough stocks in the too hard pile. Teladoc is an awesome company with an awesome mission, but in reality I don't understand the healthcare market. I liked the user experience, I hated the healthcare market, so I bought the stock. It was
- [Peloton: SaaS Plus a Box or Boxed In?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/01/peloton-saas-plus-a-box-or-boxed-in/) - The tides changed and Peloton was swimming naked. Or were they purposefully skinny-dipping? Let's dive in and figure it out. Connected Fitness Products Sales dropped substantially, while costs rose substantially. Not a good combination. Let's talk about margins. Peloton bikes are crazy expensive, but apparently are also crazy expensive to make. Margins one year ago
- [22 Wild Predictions for 2022](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2022/01/22-wild-predictions-for-2022/) - I love wild predictions. I expect most of these will be wrong but at worst it is a fun thought exercise. Coinbase hits $700Amazon stock hits $5,000Opendoor continues to successfully scale business during a continued real estate bull marketGamestop and AMC remain at their inflated market caps$DWAC stock is the next meme stock and hits
- [Brands to Watch](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/12/brands-to-watch/) - I love brands. They create pricing power and a moat for companies, which is an extremely powerful combination. The problem is, most of the time, the brand is priced in already. At times, the market starts to act funny and think brands are dying. Lets take a look at some great companies and try to
- [Looking For a Spark](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/12/looking-for-a-spark/) - I was giving my car a tune-up yesterday. I'm not super handy with cars, but I can change spark plugs, oil, etc... I stopped by an auto parts store, picked up new spark plugs and then got started pulling out the old spark plugs. That is when the problems started. I couldn't get the old
- [Right or Wrong? Doesn't matter!](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/12/right-or-wrong-doesnt-matter/) - I realize I'm not right very often. In fact, I'm wrong a lot. Almost everyone is. So what if you could find a way to be right, even when you are wrong? What I'm talking about is being directionally right, but absolutely wrong. My favorite way of doing this is by thinking wider vs narrow.
- [Why I Don't Own Apple](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/12/why-i-dont-own-apple/) - I've got a type. My favorite stocks have capitalized off the internet, tons of optionality and have reasonable valuations. Apple fit this perfectly. Apple entwined with my life and I Apple all day every day. I'm not afraid of mega caps (I'm long Amazon and Meta). Why don't I own Apple? Well, the first reason
- [Buy the F'ing Dip](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/12/buy-the-fing-dip/) - I'm a bull. Every now and then I'll get bearish, but when I get bearish is in times of great unknown. This isn't one of those times. Sure, we have a lot of shit happening right now. From Omnicron to inflation to supply chain concerns, we have tons of unknowns right now. Yet most of
- [Bitcoin and Everything Else](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/12/bitcoin-and-everything-else/) - I love the idea of web3. It makes a ton of sense. The main problem is we are early. Solana is still technically in beta. Ethereum is the leader, but its gas fees are absurdly high. Web3 coins face an uphill battle. Balancing processing power, fees and decentralization is hard. As you improve each, more
- [Why I'm Thankful for Being Fat](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/11/why-im-thankful-for-being-fat/) - My work is on fire (thanks inflation!), a lot of the stocks I own are cratering and I'm fat. Yet, I'm thankful for all of these things. Let me explain why: My work is on fire - It isn't a fun time where I work right now. Everyone is drowning with work. I'm in charge
- [Change Your Timeframe, Change Your Results](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/11/change-your-timeframe-change-your-results/) - The curse of the modern investor is that they get lost in the moment. We live in an age of great distraction. From Twitter to TV, the distractions follow you. Preaching the long term isn't sexy, so it doesn't get talked about. One of the biggest differences you can make in life is to expand
- [Branded: Is Peloton Dead?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/11/branded-is-peloton-dead/) - The bull case for Peloton is that is an amazing brand with huge optionality with a massive TAM. The bear case is a company that lost it's COVID tailwinds and will never find growth again. Let's look at how some historically strong brands have performed historically to see if this kind of drop is normal,
- [Zillow: Experiments Gone Wrong](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/11/zillow-experiments-gone-wrong/) - Recently I wrote about Zillow's tough decision to enter iBuying and how Zillow was trying to disrupt themselves. Then shit hit the fan. What Went Wrong A tech company entered a capital-intensive business. Why would they do that? They were following their north star... the customer. iBuying has a lot of great promises for customers
- [Roku and Spotify: Streaming the Future](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/11/roku-and-spotify-streaming-the-future/) - I bought Roku for the first time today. I've always been interested in the company, but I try to avoid buying stocks trading at 30x sales unless the stock is flawless (see Shopify). I had some concerns about Roku, so I set it aside for the time. Some News Developments Since June, Roku has been
- [30 Lessons from 30 Years](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/10/30-lessons-from-30-years/) - I just turned 30. It's been a wild decade. I found the love of my life, went from $12 per hour to $200k+ per year, got married, bought a house, started my blog and learned a lot. Here are 30 lessons from 30 years: Live with optionality. Asymmetric risk is the key to living your
- [Power to the People](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/10/power-to-the-people/) - Some ideas hit you like a freight train. They are so simple, yet complex. Explained in a sentence, but leading to profound conclusions. For me, power to the people is one of those ideas. Power to the People Rich Barton is a genius. He founded Expedia, Glassdoor and Zillow. All of these amazing companies had
- [Regret Minimization: Fly High, Try not to Die](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/10/regret-minimization-fly-high-try-not-to-die/) - Sometimes a video is etched into your head. For me, an example of that was Jeff Bezos talking about the regret minimization framework. This video is amazing on multiple levels. Bezos almost didn't start AmazonBezos was a total nerdRegret minimization framework is a great mental model for making decisions Simply put, the regret minimization framework
- [What is a Mental Model?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/10/what-is-a-mental-model/) - Life is hard. We live in a dynamic world that is simultaneously interconnected and pulling apart. What if we had a better way to deal with all the complex issues facing us? Mental Models For me, mental models help cut through the complex world we live in. Mental models are how we interpret the world.
- [Netflixland: Autocatalytic Overreactions](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/10/netflixland-autocatalytic-overreactions/) - I'm torn on Netflix. They are clearly a great company, but the content spend worries me. Billions of dollars are spent every year, but what will be the long-term benefit. From a surface glance, the content seems transient. I just don't see where the $20B that is being spent materially helps them in the future.
- [Passive Research: Easing the Burden of Stock Picking](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/10/passive-research-easing-the-burden-of-stock-picking/) - Passive due diligence is a great way to ease the burden of investing. I'd consider active due diligence reading investor reports, substacks, etc... These forms of research take a long time and a lot of attention. We are all busy, so having different forms of diligence can really help ease the burden of investing. Here
- [Zillow: A Beautiful Business Ready to Be Torn Apart](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/09/zillow-a-beautiful-business-ready-to-be-torn-apart/) - "This hunger for freedom and an innate drive to empower consumers is also the spark of the ideas behind my philosophy of company creation and investment—what I call “power to the people.” Revolutionary companies give power to the people, which they use to disrupt entrenched incumbents and usher in a new order."Rich Barton A Beautiful
- [Commoditizing Culture: Rebelling Against Algorithms](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/09/commoditizing-culture-rebelling-against-algorithms/) - The world has become too commoditized. By commoditization, I mean "the transformation of goods, services, ideas, nature, personal information and people into commodities or objects of trade". Uniformity is good, but so is differentiation. I worry too many things have shifted to uniformity and not enough differentiation. A counter-movement needs to be developed. Some marketplaces are working
- [Life in a Glass Castle: The Fall of Google](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/09/life-in-a-glass-castle-the-fall-of-google/) - Which of the mega tech stocks do you think will fail? None? Do you really believe that disruption is done? That big tech is too big to fail? One of them failing is inevitable. It might not happen overnight, but 10 years from now, one of the mega-caps will no longer be, well, mega. Exploring
- [Deconstructing Common Root Structures: Why You Repeat the Same Mistakes](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/08/deconstructing-common-root-structures-why-you-repeat-the-same-mistakes/) - Deja vu hit me. I had just trimmed my Square position, then it went on a massive run. I had done this before and regretted it. Yet, that didn't stop me from repeating the same mistake over and over again. I never stopped to look back and think whether I could use my past actions
- [Uber: A Wrong Turn and a Lost Company](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/08/uber-a-wrong-turn-and-a-lost-company/) - Uber came out of nowhere for me. I didn't really know how it worked until I found someone passed out drunk on the side of the road. My friend and I stopped to check on him and started a conversation with his girlfriend. She had called an Uber, so when a car rolled up and
- [The Myth of Market Cap](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/08/the-myth-of-market-cap/) - My portfolio returned >200% in 2020. Below is a chart of the the market cap of all my holdings at the start of 2020. As you can see, I didn't get these insane returns with small caps. Only $DKNG and $SFIX were sub $5B. Many people believe that you need to have low market cap
- [Is Spotify's Exclusive Podcast Strategy Working?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/08/is-spotifys-exclusive-podcast-strategy-working/) - Spotify is paying millions of dollars to bring the biggest podcast stars exclusively to Spotify. From the Joe Rogan Experience to Call Her Daddy, Spotify has spent millions of dollars on licensing deals. Yet, O&E (Original and Exclusive Podcasts) represent 20% of all podcast consumption on $SPOT, despite being a tiny percentage of the content.
- [When Should I Buy?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/07/when-should-i-buy/) - Blood was in the water, but I was buying. The market was tanking in March 2020 and due to a bonus from work, I was flush with cash. It worked beautifully... this time. The market was pumping, everyone was at all time highs, but I was buying. It was January 2021 and I was loading
- [In Defense of Optionality](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/04/in-defense-of-optionality/) - I recently came across some articles speaking ill of optionality. I was triggered. Optionality is one of my favorite ideas and I see it applied everywhere, from sports to investing. Simply put, optionality is low cost experimentation. However, in David Perell's recent newsletter he lays out how he thinks optionality isn’t a useful idea: “The
- [BABAbad Risk Management?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/07/bababad-risk-management/) - Sometimes whether you buy a stock or not comes down to one big question. Everything I've seen on Alibaba really comes down to how much risk you are willing to take on. I'll focus this piece on where the perceived risk for Alibaba is, along with where I feel the real risk lies. From a
- [Roku: The Next Great Operating System?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/07/roku-the-next-great-operating-system/) - Some of my favorite stocks are found out of confusion. I have assumptions in my head, that slowly start to reveal themselves as not true. When I first thought about Roku as an investment opportunity, I dismissed it. Just another hardware company trying to sell themselves as something else. But my ignorance quickly showed. I'm
- [Surfing the Web: Riding the Waves of the Internet](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/07/surfing-the-web-riding-the-waves-of-the-internet/) - The First Wave - Information The first wave of the internet was communication of information. You surfed the web, you found new things, you stumbledupon. MySpace, Craigslist, Wikipedia and so many more sites shared information in a more efficient way. Many businesses were built on this wave. The Second Wave - Simple Trust The second
- [Amazon Explained in 4 Charts](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/07/amazon-explained-in-4-charts/) - Amazon is my favorite company. They've inspired much of my investing philosophy. I recently dove into some historical information that inspired me. Here are 4 charts that show the past, present and possibly the future of Amazon. Pure Magic and a Little Optionality Twenty plus years of significant revenue growth, with an acceleration of growth
- [From Bull to Bear: Devil's Advocate on Spotify](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/06/from-bull-to-bear-devils-advocate-on-spotify/) - I'm a massive Spotify bull. It's by far my favorite investment. I plan to keep buying more of this company, but to be your best bull self you need to understand the bear cases better than the bears themselves. This technique is called steel manning (i.e the opposite of straw manning). You build up the
- [Three Ideas to Change the World](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/06/three-ideas-to-change-the-world/) - 1. The Creator Economy The stars are aligning. From NFTs to paid podcast subscriptions, new ways of monetization are popping up everywhere. It's fun to talk about how much money the 1% will make, but to me it is even more fun to think about everyone else. Once you start combining the creator economy with
- [Investing Theory: Just Keep Buying Great Companies at Good Prices](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/06/investing-theory-just-keep-buying-great-companies-at-good-prices/) - Just keep buying great companies at a good price. It sounds so simple, but I think this investing philosophy can beat the market. Let's dive in and see if we can't make some money here. Great Companies Just keep buying great companies sounds so easy until you try to formulaically identify what great companies look
- [Netflix: Half Baked Thoughts](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/06/netflix-half-baked-thoughts/) - I don't own Netflix stock. I'm not really interested in owning Netflix stock either. So why am I writing on it? I've publicly written on many of my favorite stocks. In time I will see if I am right or wrong and will hopefully learn from it. Since I've publicly made the bull case for
- [Inflation: I'm Interested](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/06/inflation-im-interested/) - I'm a little nuts. I read too much zerohedge, then get a little nervous. I'm already anti-government to begin with, so sometimes I can get a little angsty. Today my angst revolves around inflation. But, a lot of smart people are concerned. Inflation is top of mind for everyone from Stanley Druckenmiller to Michael Burry
- [Fatal Flaws: Great Businesses Hiding in Plain Sight](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/05/fatal-flaws-great-businesses-hiding-in-plain-sight/) - We look in the oddest places for great investments. From Pager Duty to Mohawk (or Aterian) investors look high and low for outsized returns. But sometimes great investments are hiding right in front of us. Yet these stocks are ignored due to assumed "fatal flaws". Are these flaws really fatal? Or are they really flaws
- [Social Investing: Beyond Hot Stonk Tips](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/05/social-investing-beyond-hot-stonk-tips/) - The passion economy is booming. Elon is pumping Dogecoin. Influencer marketing is starting to take over. But what does this mean for the future? Certain individuals have outsized influence (due to large social followings). Like Roaring Kitty drove the GameStop short squeeze, other influencers will pump their stock prices. Some don't even mean to pump
- [Doge Pound: Drunken Group Economics](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/05/doge-pound-drunken-group-economics/) - I'm down for lolz. I make several dumb tweets a day. I posted these tweets within hours of each other. Let's embrace the stupidity and see what we can learn. And boy is Dogecoin stupid. At $77B market cap, Dogecoin is worth more than Mercado Libre, Snowflake, Honda, Kraft, Dollar General, Spotify and Roku. I
- [Sea the Future](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/05/sea-the-future/) - Sea Limited is swimming in optionality—a three headed monster that is evolving. Growing three businesses remarkably fast, while still investing in other areas. Can their rapid gains continue? Or will they drown in a sea of debt? A Brief History Sea is made up in three different subsegments: gaming (Garena), e-commerce (Shopee) and financial services
- [Mental Models: 58 Ways to Think Clearer](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/04/mental-models-58-ways-to-think-clearer/) - What is a mental model? A mental model is tool used to help you understand the underlying reality. Why do we need mental models? Life is complicated and often doesn’t make sense, but mental models provide a way to understand the past, present and future. Here are 58 mental models that I've explained as simply
- [No Pain, No Compounding Gains: On Market Cannibalism](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/04/no-pain-no-compounding-gains-on-market-cannibalism/) - Barnes & Noble knew Amazon was dangerous. They had a choice to make. Do they dilute their profits by competing in the low margin/high cost e-commerce business? Barnes & Noble made the decision to enter the e-commerce market. Great, right? Nope. While entering the e-commerce market, Barnes & Noble decided to prevent the cash burning
- [Karma Police: Why You Should Never Forget Karma](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/10/karma-police-why-you-should-never-forget-karma/) - “That’s a crock of shit. This isn’t a platform. A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”- Bill Gates on early Facebook I've been thinking through my investing style. I look for a number of things in businesses
- [Bitcoin: The Currency of Trust](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/04/bitcoin-digitized-trust/) - The internet is evolving, yet trust is at an all time low. But don't worry, Bitcoin is here to save the day. A Brief History Bitcoin was created by someone with the alias of Satoshi Nakamoto. No one knows who the true creator is, but we do know that they changed the world. Bitcoin started
- [U Done F'd Up: Market Confessions](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/u-done-fd-up-market-confessions/) - I've done a lot of stupid things this year. Here is a list of just dumb things I did in the market. Trimmed $SQ before a massive run (to buy $TWTR)Trimmed $SFIX before a massive runTrimmed $PINS before a massive runSold my $GRWG call options far too early (missed out on at least $3k gains)Sold
- [Bitcoin: Why Everyone On the Internet is Wrong](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/10/bitcoin-why-everyone-on-the-internet-is-wrong/) - I love arguing about Bitcoin on the internet. I know it's dumb, but I can't help myself. Something about the whole Bitcoin argument really brings out the debater in me. The main problem I have with the Bitcoin argument is that everyone is wrong! Bears argue that Bitcoin's price is down since its previous all
- [Investing Made Simple](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/investing-made-simple/) - Investing doesn't need to be as complicated as everyone makes it out to be. All you need to keep doing is dollar cost average into quality assets, then rarely sell. I'll break that sentence down. DOLLAR COST AVERAGE: DCA Dollar cost average means just keep buying. You buy small amounts over time. You don't worry
- [Just Keep Buying: A Mantra for Getting Rich](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/just-keep-buying-a-mantra-for-getting-rich/) - My favorite investing saying is "Just Keep Buying". It is so simple. You literally just keep buying. Sell? Nope, that's not buying. While it is simple, I think the saying does have some depth if you think about it. Just keep buying has technical routes. Dollar cost averaging is an investing strategy, where you break
- [Jack on Track: Why this Time is Different for Twitter](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/03/jack-on-track-why-this-time-is-different-for-twitter/) - Twitter is an enigma. A company with extreme power, but middling results. Led by a quirky moonlighting CEO. I believe Twitter is strategically placed for the future, but let’s start at the beginning. History Repeats Twitter wasn’t always the enigma that it is today. At a certain point Twitter was the hot start up, the
- [Fear of the Unknown: Etsy and Night Lights](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/03/fear-of-the-unknown-etsy-and-night-lights/) - Children are scared of the dark for a reason. In the dark, you can't see what's coming. They have a fear of the unknown. That fear is rational! You should be scared of the unknown. You should be constantly building yourself to protect against threats that don't exist yet. Etsy is positioned with little real
- [Bear Role Play: Concerns On My Stocks](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/03/bear-role-play-concerns-on-my-stocks/) - Know what you own or it will own you. Focusing on strengths is great, but you also need to understand weaknesses. The best management teams are always actively working to improve weaknesses. Understanding weaknesses helps you better understand companies. $SPOT - When will margins improve? Will Spotify be able to gain more leverage over music
- [Fat Fund Financials - P&Ls](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/03/fat-fund-financials-pls/) - Words are misleading. Play a game of telephone or try to recap an argument with your fiancée and you'll quickly agree. Luckily in investing we have financials to help avoid having to play a game of telephone. Analyzing financials can seem tricky at first, but once you start to break it down it's much simpler
- [Blind, Deaf and Dumb: On Going to Cash](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/02/blind-deaf-and-dumb-on-going-to-cash/) - Nothing triggers me like seeing someone going into cash because of “high valuations”. I know I shouldn’t get riled up, but I do. Most of the time people admit that they shouldn’t be trying to time the market, but valuations are too high. Okay okay, I get it, most valuations are high. But you chose
- [Elevator Pitchin' All My Stocks](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/02/elevator-pitchin-all-my-stocks/) - Brevity is the soul of wit. In 20 seconds or less, I'll try to explain why I have a position in each of these stocks. $SPOT - The premier audio company. Dominating music streaming, podcasts and audio ads. 350M users strong and still growing. A trillion dollar company hiding in plain sight. Founder-led.$SQ - Encouraging
- [Diamond Hands: Turning Trash Into Treasure?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/02/diamond-hands-turning-trash-into-treasure/) - Diamond hands have taken hold of the internet. Simply put, diamond hands-ing is holding something until it hits the moon. Diamond hands sound great. The moon sounds awesome. The problem is what the diamond hands are holding. Lately they have been holding $GME and Dogecoin. Those have extreme volatility, but not really for a good
- [Found Not Lost: On the Importance of Founders](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/02/found-not-lost-on-the-importance-of-founders/) - Jeff Bezos is stepping aside as CEO of Amazon. Bezos built Amazon into everything it is. He built the culture. If I were having a CEO draft, he would be my first pick. I primarily focus on buying founder-led companies and Bezos is THE founder. Yet, I'm not panicking about him stepping down as CEO.
- [Shopify: Why They Don't Need Your SaaS](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/shopify-why-they-dont-need-your-saas/) - “Amazon is trying to build an empire and Shopify is trying to arm the rebels.” - Tobi Lutke What is Shopify? Simply put, Shopify is a "complete commerce platform that lets you start, grow, and manage a business." From website creation to managing orders, payments and fulfilling orders, Shopify is helping customers at every turn.
- [Spotify: Breaking the Sound Barrier](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/02/spotify-breaking-the-sound-barrier/) - Sometimes the best investments are hidden in plain sight. Spotify is everywhere at this point. Concerns around margins have dragged the stock down, but low margins are just a part of an impressive story. The Obstacle is the Way Spotify ran the gauntlet. They beat Apple, Amazon and Google in the music streaming industry. The
- [January 2021 In Review: Storm the Capital then Squeeze the Hedges](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/january-2021-in-review-storm-the-capital-then-squeeze-the-hedges/) - January began with the storming of the capital and ended with WallStreetBets raiding hedge funds. It's been a wild start to 2021. My portfolio returned +$25.5k (+10.25%) driven by $SFIX, $BTC, $TDOC and $ETSY. Moves Buys - $FB, $AMZN, $PTON, $PINS, $SFIX , $SPOT and $GME Calls Sells - $FUTU Calls, $BABA Calls, $GME Calls,
- [Can't Stop, Won't Stop, GameStop - How Squeezes and Group Economics Created a Situation](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/cant-stop-wont-stop-gamestop-how-squeezes-and-group-economics-created-a-situation/) - Together we are one (gigantic hedge fund). Reddit's community of traders have done something remarkable. Normally the market is essentially zero sum (market makers are the exception). Wallstreetbets found a way to pump a stock price while still not leaving anyone empty-handed (theoretically). The key to what made this happen is two concepts: squeezes and
- [Five Stocks You Should Have Bought Last Year](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/five-stocks-you-should-have-bought-last-year/) - I messed up. I do it all the time. I don't get down about it, I try to learn from it. Below are five stocks that have been on huge runs and my reasoning behind not owning them. Hopefully we both can learn something from reviewing this. $SNAP - up 191% I love owning social
- [Square: Out of the Box Financials](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/square-out-of-the-box-financials/) - Initially, Square was just a credit card reader that attached to phones. Quickly, a hardware stand and app were added that turned an iPad into a point-of-sale system. Then Square really started to take off into new spaces. Simply, the business can be broken down into two separate ecosystems: Seller (Square) and Cash App. Square
- [Dot Com 2.0: Going Rich, Not Bankrupt](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/dot-com-2-0-going-rich-not-bankrupt/) - The market is euphoric. Stupidity is at an all time high. Bears are screaming bubble, while bulls just keep pumping. Is this Dot Com 2.0? Who is right? A brief history of a few companies from the Dot Com bubble will help set the stage. Pets.com - A company selling pet supplies online sold $619,000
- [Your Moat Doesn't Exist: But Buffett's Does](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/your-moat-doesnt-exist-but-buffetts-does/) - "First of all, I think moats are lame. It's nice, sort of quaint in a vestigial way. If your only defense against invading armies is a moat, you will not last long. What matters is the pace of innovation. That is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness."-Elon Musk If you give a man a hammer, he
- [Optionality: Achieving Asymmetrical Returns](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/optionality-achieving-asymmetrical-returns/) - When I look across the top stocks, one thing jumps out to me: multiple revenue streams. Multiple revenue streams evolve from having multiple options in the past. Optionality is the act of having multiple options. The future is unknown. Having multiple paths forward is highly valuable. The more options you have, the better you can
- [GameStop: Dying Thieves  or Evolving Thieves?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/gamestop-dying-thieves-or-evolving-thieves/) - How can you support someone who stole from children? GameStop stole from me as a child. I ordered NFL QB Club online for $10, then when it showed up it had a sticker on it for $2.99. I had my mom call GameStop to complain, but nothing happened. I'm still not fully over it. GameStop
- ["In-Efficient" Market Hypothesis: I'm Triggered](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/in-efficient-market-hypothesis-im-triggered/) - I lost faith in economics a long time ago. The whole science is built on flawed assumptions. My breaking point was the efficient market hypothesis, which states stock prices reflect all current information. Basically, you can't beat the market. I disagree and I will show why it is dumb. Let's look at some price action
- [Facebook: Bears and Game Theory](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/facebook-bears-and-game-theory/) - Instagram is more addictive than crack (I'm only sort of joking). Facebook is a dopamine company. From social media to gaming, Facebook is a constant stream of dopamine. Dopamine is an area of investing that has intrigued me. I believe dopamine companies are investing gold mines hiding in plain sight. But, despite being an endless
- [The Ultimate Form of Optionality](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/the-ultimate-form-of-optionality/) - This presentation from Social Capital is a thing of beauty. Amazon analyzed where they were spending money, then found a better way to handle it. They vertically integrated those expenses into their business, then flipped that into a source of revenue. It may appear like sorcery at first, but as you pull things back, it's
- [What I Learned in 2020](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2021/01/what-i-learned-in-2020/) - Everyone can agree that 2020 was a dumpster fire, but that doesn't mean that you can't learn from it. Entropy Systems prevent entropy... what systems are you setting up to prevent entropy? Entropy can come in many forms. It can come in your relationships, in your body or your mind. I've stopped going to the
- [Why Your New Years Resolution Sucks: Invest Instead](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/why-your-new-years-resolution-sucks-invest-instead/) - The best thing someone can do is make investing a habit. Once you create a habit, everything comes so much more naturally. You don't even think about it, it just happens. How can we make investing a habit? Recurring Purchases I'm a big fan of recurring purchases. I do this in Robinhood with $AMZN stock,
- [Investing Inception: The Minds of Management](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/investing-inception-the-minds-of-management/) - Financial filings tell you exactly what concerns management. In order to have conviction, you need to trust management. What concerns management should concern you! A failure to mitigate risks will lead to reduced returns. Below is an example from Spotify. Daniel Ek is concerned about the below and so am I. I use these filings
- [The Grandest Mistake of Them All](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/the-grandest-mistake-of-them-all/) - It seems so easy to time the market. We can see all the terrible things happening right before our eyes. See below for two recent examples: The world was going to burn. Stocks were going to tank no matter WHAT. If the market hates one thing, it is uncertainty and we are going to have
- [Cult Brands: Call Your Dad, You Have a Hot Stock Tip](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/cult-brands-call-your-dad-you-have-a-hot-stock-tip/) - Sometimes, instead of trying to understand something, you make fun of it. It doesn't make sense, you don't know why people are acting weird, so we rib 'em. $3k for a bike with an iPad on it... yeah... naw... But thinking like that is lazy. I want to work to understand, even while I am
- [Why I Bot $TSLA](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/why-i-bot-tsla/) - Tesla has a young founder, huge target addressable market (TAM), emerging optionality, profitable financials, growing at 15%+ per year, benefits from network effects and is in the S&P 500. When you have a business that meets all of these, how can you not buy? Apologies, I lied to you like your parents lied about Santa.
- [Gumption: The Future Favors the Gumptious](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/gumption-the-future-favors-the-gumptious/) - The world is trying to destroy you and without gumption, you really don't stand a chance at winning. It may seem dramatic, but I think it is true. But why gumption and not just initiative, etc? Gumption means, "shrewd or spirited initiative and resourcefulness". With only a cursory glance, gumption seems like a southern way
- [Zillow: On the Vanguard](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/08/zillow-on-the-vanguard/) - Zillow is a different kind of investment. I don't think they quite know what they are doing. That happens when you are on the vanguard. Zillow Offers on the surface is stupid. Volatile inventory within a cyclical industry isn't ideal (especially considering the low margins). Sometimes you need to make sub-optimal short term decisions to
- [Autocatalysis: The Science Behind Compounding](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/autocatalysis-the-science-behind-compounding/) - Recently, I wrote on optionality. It is one of my favorite concepts to investing, but the article left out one key feature (on purpose). A key accelerant to optionality comes from autocatalysis, which is a biological reaction where "one of the reaction products is also a catalyst for the same or a coupled reaction". In
- [Virtual Reality: Waiting for the Eye Phone](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/virtual-reality-waiting-for-the-eye-phone/) - Virtual reality is awesome. One moment you can be fighting mummies, then you can be traveling to the most exotic parts of the world and seconds later sitting front row at any sporting event. Basically, you can be the Rock. It sounds amazing. Why isn't it more popular? One argument is the tech just isn't
- [Seems Like a Bad Idea: iBuying](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/seems-like-a-bad-idea-ibuying/) - Zillow, Redfin, etc... are all chasing after iBuying like it's the next big thing. It seems like a bad idea. But... it also is a good idea. Real estate is a terrible industry for the customer. Fees all over the place, onerous processes, etc... A company taking on that pain from the customer is a
- [Tesla: Why I'm Long $ELON, not $TSLA](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/tesla-why-im-long-elon-not-tsla/) - Elon Musk is closing in on being the richest person in the world. He's filthy rich for good reason. Elon has so many different things in the works right now, it's staggering. Tesla, Hyperloop, SpaceX, Solar City, Neuralink, etc... When I posted the below tweet, I got a lot of feedback on others personal rankings
- [Stitchfix: I Expected an Ugly Baby but I Was Mistaken](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/stitchfix-i-expected-an-ugly-baby-but-i-was-mistaken/) - Stitchfix isn't what you would expect and that throws off bros on the internet. See the typical logic below. I was one of these bros (not quite that bad, but still). I just dismissed them as another company that was burning cash and not growing fast enough considering cash outflow. Then I looked at the
- [Marketplaces and Moats](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/11/marketplaces-and-moats/) - I'm invested heavily in marketplaces ($AMZN, $ETSY, $FB, $SE, maaaybe $Z), which has led me to think heavily around how marketplaces work. Marketplaces are relatively simple: Marketplaces are two sided (buyers and sellers)Marketplaces connect buyers and sellersMarketplaces facilitate the transactionMarketplaces add value for both buyers and sellers Simple marketplaces were one of the internet's first
- [Spotify: The Aggregation Play](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/07/spotify-the-aggregation-play/) - Spotify revolutionized the music industry. They led the charge to streaming and changed the music industry. Throughout this, Spotify gained massive user growth and significant market share. Normally, massive user growth and significant market share lead to massive profits in the tech industry. This however was not the case for Spotify due to the higher marginal
- [Twitter - I’m Torn, I’m all out of faith. Or full of faith. I’m not really sure.](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/07/twitter-im-torn-im-all-out-of-faith-or-full-of-faith-im-not-really-sure/) - I've owned twitter stock. I've sold twitter stock. It is a complicated relationship. I just can't hang onto the stock, something always shakes me. Then, two months later I am back in.The metrics (mDau - monetizable daily active users) are good. 34% YoY is very strong.The financials are bad. Revenue down, OpEx up. It is
- [Bitcoin: Hedging with Upside](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/07/bitcoin-hedging-with-upside/) - Twitter got hacked yesterday. Major accounts (Pres. Obama, Biden, Gates, Musk, etc...) were tweeting the below.Obviously, the hackers never doubled anyone's bitcoin, but it did bring bitcoin back to the headlines. The hackers have made $100k+ already from this heist. Some will jump on this as another opportunity to bash bitcoin as a scam, but
- [Bitcoin and Trust](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/09/bitcoin-and-trust/) - I've noticed people claiming that Bitcoin has a fatal flaw. The flaw will prevent it from being a reserve asset and ultimately lead to its downfall.The reality though, is that this isn't a fatal flaw, its a key feature. In reality, if you remove replicability of Bitcoin, you remove decentralization. The beauty of Bitcoin is
- [Amazon: Turning Weaknesses into Revenue](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/09/amazon-turning-weaknesses-into-revenue/) - I bought Amazon for the first time. I'm not sure why I never bought before. If anyone asked me what my favorite stock was, I would say Spotify or Amazon. I own $30k of Spotify and none of Amazon. I don't really get why this happened, but I'll blame it on cognitive dissonance. That being
- [Long $CULTS - On Peloton](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/09/long-cults-on-peloton/) - Peloton makes no sense to me. The business model is boring, essentially a hardware company pretending to be SaaS. You pay $2k+ for an exercise bike, then even more to stream the classes. It's stupid expensive. Personally, I have no interest in the product given the price. It's just not rational, but that is because
- [October Month End Review](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/11/october-month-end-review/) - October was a big month for Bitcoin and a bad month for stocks. Overall, this led to a flat month for me. I feel good on my portfolio.Buys: $AMZN, $PTON, $ZM, $SE, $SHOP, $DKNGBuy commentary: $AMZN is a recurring purchase, but I have a ton of confidence in this company. I will keep building my
- [November Review - Just Keep Buying Edition](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/november-month-end-review/) - November was a crazy month. Overall, I didn't make a lot of changes, but had very strong results. The market has been on a crazy run and I've taken advantage. Forever grateful for the results from this year... but I do hope I can keep it going. Adds - $SHOP, $SE, $AMZN, $ZM, $PTON, $DKNG,
- [Etsy: Skinny Dipping with Mask Money](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/10/etsy-skinny-dipping-with-mask-money/) - Etsy took advantage of the pandemic. Well, really Etsy did nothing. Etsy's network however went to work, quickly. Its the beauty of decentralization. In Q2, 112k sellers had a mask sale. The scale and speed is extremely impressive.Etsy did nothing and profited from it. That is the beauty of it all (and the problem). Etsy
- [Facebook and Karma](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/10/facebook-and-karma/) - Does Facebook make the world a worse place?I've been thinking a lot about off balance sheet liabilities lately (aka an extremely large negative externality). Essentially, this is a fancy financial way of saying karma. Should $FB have a large off balance sheet liability? The easy answer is yes. Facebook largely ignores many of its problems
- [Airbnb: Indebted, Liable and My Kind of Stock](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/11/airbnb-indebted-liable-and-my-kind-of-stock/) - Airbnb recently released their S1 in preparation of their upcoming IPO. I jumped to risk factors and Airbnb definitely carries risk. Here are a few (of many): Our revenue growth rate has slowed, and we expect it to continue to slow in the future.Our substantial level of indebtedness could materially adversely affect our financial conditionUncertainty
- [Zoom: After the Boom Comes the Boom?](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/11/zoom-after-the-boom-comes-the-boom/) - Zoom has been on an otherworldly tear. Some might say Zoom was just in the right place at the right time, but I would argue they put themselves in that place, then took full advantage. Zoom's growth is far more about Zoom than it is COVID. The financials are absurd. FCF of $356M on $664M
- [Market Hormesis: Stay Chill](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/11/market-hormesis-stay-chill/) - Since I learned what hormesis was, I've been fascinated with the idea. Hormesis is a beneficial biological effect comes from exposure to low doses of an agent that is toxic at higher doses. A basic example is sunlight. In very large doses, sunlight can be very harmful, however in smaller doses sunlight is very beneficial.I
- [Cheap Dopamine: Can't Stop, Won't Stop](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/11/cheap-dopamine-cant-stop-wont-stop/) - Cheap dopamine is that little notification, the constantly refreshing newsfeed, the bad news porn, the winning bet. It's addictive stimulation and instant gratification. It's becoming easier and easier to get cheap dopamine. The reality is that people love cheap dopamine. They love social media, gambling, smoking, drinking and so much more. Obtaining cheap dopamine is
- [Online Education: Cheap Dopamine and a Societal Funnel](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/10/online-education-cheap-dopamine-and-a-societal-funnel/) - The reality is that people don't want to learn. They need to be forced or manipulated into learning. Our higher education does this through a societal funnel. Essentially, children are guilted into going to college. Obviously, this isn't the case for everyone. Some people naturally love learning. But, most people don't.The dirty secret of online
- [The New Internet: Burning Barriers to Entry the Fuck Down](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/12/the-new-internet-burning-barriers-to-entry-the-fuck-down/) - I've been on an investing tear. Life changing money. Why? Robinhood burned the barriers to entry the fuck down. I never would have traded if I had to pay a commission on every trade. Robinhood gave me the opportunity and I took it. How many people are there like me? I would guess hundreds of
- [Elevator Pitches for my Top Investments](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/08/elevator-pitches-for-my-top-investments/) - "As simple as possible, but no simpler" - EinsteinThese are my elevator pitches for my investments. Short and simple because ain't nobody got the time.$SPOT - Spotify ($28k)Revolutionized music industry, but margins are naturally low. Leveraging current user base into higher profit businesses (starts with podcasts). Founder led.$SQ - Square ($12k)Disruptive fintech. Seller (small business)
- [Investing in the Future because of the Past](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/08/investing-in-the-future-because-of-the-past/) - When reviewing companies with the highest market caps, you see some major commonalities. Initially, I group the top companies into two groups: tech with great financials and dopamine stocks, but the lines are blurry.The companies making up "tech with great financials" are Apple, Google and Microsoft. Some people will say that Apple isn't a tech
- [My Investing Strategy](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/08/my-investing-strategy/) - Below is a high level overview of my investing strategy.Look at marginal costsScale is importantAny companies that have a high fixed cost and low marginal cost intrigues meCompanies scale now easier than ever. See Zoom recently. The market hasn't fully caught on to this.Read aggregation theoryRent value, own growthIs the company trying to transcend what
- [Boomers and the Internet](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/08/boomers-and-the-internet/) - Boomers didn't grow up on the internet. Boomers don't understand the internet. This has led to only the obvious industries being revolutionized. Its not a coincidence that Airbnb, Uber, etc.. all started up recently. Boomers didn't trust the internet, didn't understand that trust could be confirmed by the internet.Boomers are on their way out. People
- [A Changing World: Trust and Education](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/08/a-changing-world-trust-and-education/) - Airbnb disrupted the hotel business. Uber disrupted the taxi business. The beauty of these companies is that they did this all with minimal capital investment. Airbnb and Uber didn't own the rental properties or the vehicles, they owned the relationship. You gain more power as you move closer to the customer. Why can't this model
- [5 (bad) Business Ideas](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/07/5-bad-business-ideas/) - WARNING: These are very bad ideas. Don't spend any money on them. That being said, bad ideas are good things. Bad ideas beget good ideas. I hope my stupid ideas lead someone to an actual business.Crowdfunding but for bad ideas.Neapolitan ice cream but with good flavors (i.e. cookie dough, moose tracks and rocky road)Chex mix
- [Profiting from the Destructive Wake of the Internet](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/07/profiting-from-the-destructive-wake-of-the-internet/) - The internet changed everything and it hasn't stopped changing everything. New companies are sprouting up day after day from the aftermath of the creation of the internet. Over the past 15 years, many companies greatly benefitted ($AMZN, $MFST, $GOOG, $FB, etc...), but the gains from the internet are still coming. Amazon, Google, Microsoft picked at
- [Stock Market Predictions](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/07/stock-market-predictions/) - I'm not saying these will happen, but I do think the below predictions are more likely to happen than people believe. Where you see a gap between what you believe versus the market, its an opportunity.Facebook will be the next Apple. I don't like Facebook, I don't use Facebook, but goddamn are their financials nice.
- [COVID-19 and a Rapidly Changing World](https://fatbabyfunds.com/2020/07/covid-19-and-a-rapidly-changing-world/) - COVID-19 accelerated everything that was happening at scale. E-commerce sales have grown steadily over the past 10 years, but growth over the next year, more growth will come. The growth that took 10 years now will be replicated in one to two years. Who will benefit from this? The obvious answers are Amazon, Shopify, Alibaba,

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## Categories

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- [Stock Write-Ups](https://fatbabyfunds.com/category/stocks/stock-write-ups/) - Write-ups behind stocks. Quick, easy and analytical. DYOR.
- [Philosophy](https://fatbabyfunds.com/category/philosophy/) - My bad ideas, written down for your amusement.
- [Month End Review](https://fatbabyfunds.com/category/stocks/month-end-review/) - Reviews of what happened this month. Short and sweet. Hopefully profitable.
- [Stocks](https://fatbabyfunds.com/category/stocks/)

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